March 15th, 2011 – The Whole Spent Fuel Pool At Reactor 3 Could Boil Dry In 20 Days

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Sent: Tuesday, March 15, 2011 4:54 PM
To: Tinkler, Charles
Cc: Basu, Sudhamay; Gavrilas, Mirela; Lee, Richard; Grandy, Christopher
Subject: RE: Fukushima

Steve noticed in a washington post article a few minutes ago that from satelite photos they observed steam rising from the spent fuel pool at Unit 3 on Monday. Just thought you should know.

I wanted to try to put this in perspective not knowing much. Sensible heat is about 15 % of the total heat to boil, so if it took 3 days to start boiling, that would mean it would take 20 days to completely boil dry in the whole pool.

Assuming that the total pool height is filled 1/3 of the way by the assemblies, with 2/3 of the water layer on top, then the time to boil down to the tops of the assemblies is of the order of (2/3)*20 days or 13 days. This is a groping calculation but I know very little like total decay heat level in the pool and the initial water volume and height.


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