March 15th, 2011 – I am walking to the 6th floor to get permission to work on this.

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From: Stutzke, Martin
Sent: Tuesday, March 15, 2011 10:25 AM
To: Ake, Jon; Kammerer, Annie
Subject: FW: NBC deadline question for NRC on seismic hazard estimates
Importance: High

We need information to answer Question #3 concerning the development of new consensus seismic hazard curves:

1. What is the official project name?
2. Who is the overall project manager and his/her contact information?
3. Is there a public website that provides overview information on the project?
4. List of all participating organizations (domestic and international)?
5. Projected schedule? (I think this is by December 2011)

FYI – The reporter’s understanding on Question #1 is correct. I’m working on Question #2 by going to the Region IV SRAs to find out what licensees have available.
We will defer Question #4 to NRR.

Marty

From: Beasley, Benjamin
Sent: Tuesday, March 15, 2011 9:36 AM
To: Stutzke, Martin; Ake, Jon
Cc: Kauffman, John
Subject: FW: NBC deadline question for NRC on seismic hazard estimates
Importance: High

I am still reading this but need to give you the heads up. I am walking to the 6th floor to get permission to work on this.

Ben
From: Wilson, George
Sent: Tuesday, March 15, 2011 9:31 AM
To: Beasley, Benjamin
Subject: FW: NBC deadline question for NRC on seismic hazard estimates
Importance: High

fyi

From: Hiland, Patrick
Sent: Tuesday, March 15, 2011 9:20 AM
To: Wilson, George; Manoly, Kamal
Cc: Stutzke, Martin; Ake, Jon; Coe, Doug; Skeen, David; Scales, Kerby
Subject: FW: NBC deadline question for NRC on seismic hazard estimates
Importance: High

Need to work with OPA, and RES. Kamal should coordinate with RES, and I suggest Marty/Jon respond directly through RES. Doug Coe is good source also for the GI. Get OPA involved.

Firom: Bill Dedman [mailto: [email protected]]
Sent: Tuesday, March 15, 2011 9:06 AM
To: Manoly, Kamal; Sheron, Brian; Hiland, Patrick; OPA Resource
Subject: NBC deadline question for NRC on seismic hazard estimates

Good morning,

My name is Bill Dedman. I’m a reporter for NBC News and msnbc.com, writing an article today about:

SAFETY/RISK ASSESSMENT RESULTS FOR GENERIC ISSUE 199, “IMPLICATIONS OF UPDATED PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ESTIMATES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES ON EXISTING PLANTS”

I reached out to NRC Public Affairs yesterday but have not heard back, and my deadline is end-of-day today. I’m hoping to get on the phone today with someone from NRC to make sure I’m conveying this information accurately to the public. If nothing else, I’m hoping one of the technical people can help clarify the points below. My telephone number is 203-451-9995.

I’ve read Director Brian Sheron’s memo of Sept. 2, 2010, to Mr. Patrick Hiland; the safety/risk assessment of August 2010; its appendices A through D; NRC Information Notice 2010-18; and the fact sheet from public affairs from November 2010.

I have these questions:

1. I’d like to make sure that I accurately place in layman’s terms the seismic hazard estimates. I need to make sure that I’m understanding the nomenclature for expressing the seismic core-damage frequencies. Let’s say there’s an estimate expressed as “2.5E-06.'” (I’m looking at Table D-2 of the safety/risk assessment of August 2010.) I believe that this expression means the same as 2.5 x 10^-06, or 0.0000025, or 2.5 divided by one million. In layman’s terms, that means an
expectation, on average, of 2.5 events every million years, or once every 400,000 years. Similarly, “2.5E-05” would be 2.5 divided by 100,000, or 2.5 events every 100,000 years, on average, or once every 40,000 years. Is this correct?

2. These documents give updated probabilistic seismic hazard estimates for existing nuclear power plants in the Central and Eastern U.S. What document has the latest seismic hazard estimates (probabilistic or not) for existing nuclear power plants in the Western U.S.?

3. The documents refer to newer data on the way. Have NRC, USGS et al. released those? I’m referring to this: “New consensus seismic-hazard estimates will become available in late 2010 or early 2011 (these are a product of a joint NRC, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) project). These consensus seismic hazard estimates will supersede the existing EPRI, Lawrence Livermore, National Laboratory, and USGS hazard estimates used in the GI-199 Safety/Risk Assessment.”

4. What is the timetable now for consideration of any regulatory changes from this research?

Thank you for your help.

Regards,
Bill Dedman

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