The base calculation (which Randy, Dana, Mike Salay, Sud and I) think could be perhaps the worst case scenario of melt (with stainless steel) coming out of one control rod drive (CRD) hole into a saturated pool of water about 6-7ft from the melt expelling from the CRD hole.
The load calculated is not showing a problem in breaching the primary containment structure (for e.g, the liner – assuming that it is still in reasonable condition). Additional parametric studies are ongoing. I have provided the preliminary assessment to Mike Salay and Hossein already.
This is the case where the water did not completed flooded the reactor cavity. If the cavity is completely flooded, the FCI will not be an issue. I think, flooding the reactor cavity is being considered. I know MCCI analysis been carried out by Mitch Farmer (ANL) – which is a DOE directed analysis.
Your advise (and Brian Sheron one if you need to consult with him) is sought for us to share this FCI analysis with the Science Council through John Kelly This will give us some visibility on the pro-active analyses that are on-going at different labs directed by DOE.
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