Catastrophe in Japan – Cascadia Subduction Zone – West Coast at Risk

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EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS AND EFFECTS  – SEATAC WASHINGTON – Cascadia Subduction Zone

The wise learn from the mistakes of others and benefit; while the foolish learn over and over the hard way by repeating their own mistakes

NOTE: SEATAC is just a placeholder; other locations in subduction zones  can be substituted as well

Walter Hays Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction

A CATASTROPHE IN JAPAN

1) M9.0 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE
2) TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
3) FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR CRISIS

4TH  LARGEST QUAKE EVER      3 – 10 M TSUNAMI WAVES

RADIATION LEAKS

2:46 pm MARCH 11, 2011

The Cascadia subduction zone and the subduction zone near Sendai, Japan are similar in a tectonic sense. Japan’s subduction zone produced a M9.0 earthquake and a destructive tsunami on 11 March 2011.

THE HEADLINES WE NEVER WANT TO READ COULD HAPPEN IN THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE ANYTIME

“A CATASTROPHE IN SEATTLE AREA”
1) M9.0 EARTHQUAKE
2) TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
3) MT RAINIER LAHAR IMPACTS SEATAC AND THE AREA

4TH  LARGEST QUAKE EVER      3 – 10 M TSUNAMI WAVES

SEATAC IMMOBILIZED

UNKNOWN DATE

So far, 13 major crustal faults are identified in the Puget Sound area. Three of the most important faults are the Cascadia fault zone, the South Whidbey island fault zone, and the Seattle fault zone.

•The Cascadia subduction zone, which extends from Vancouver Island to Cape Mendiceno, is capable of producing earthquakes of   M 8 to 9+ and a destructive tsunami whenever M = 8.0+.

•Moderate crustal earthquakes (M6.5) occur about once ever 35 years and great earthquakes (M 8.0-9.0) occur about once every 500 years.

•At present, the probability of a M9.0 earthquake occurring during the next 50 years is 10 – 14 percent.

•The Cascadia subduction zone produced a M9.0  earthquake and a destructive tsunami on January 26, 1700 that left its “fingerprints in the Puget Sound area” before traveling the Pacific and reaching Japan.

USUALLY NO WARNING AND NO EVACUATION
• SURVIVAL DEPENDS ON THE SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION OF THE BUILDINGS TO WITHSTAND GROUND SHAKING
• ECONOMIC LOSS DEPENDS ON THE SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION.
•LOSS OF LIFE HAS REACHED TENS OF THOUSANDS OR MORE IN SOME MAJOR EARTHQUAKES.
•EVACUATION TO GET PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY IS NOT POSSIBLE, BECAUSE THE TIME OF OCCURRENCE CAN NOT BE RELIABLY PREDICTED.
WHAT CAN HAPPEN?
WHAT ARE THE SOCIETAL CONSEQUENCES OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN?
WHAT CAN BE DONE TO BE READY FOR A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE (IT MAY BE SHALLOW OR IT MAY BE DEEP) IN THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE?

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